- The BTC reserves on the exchange fell from 2.438M to 2.423M, probably a sign of greater confidence and long time holding behavior.
- Outflows were not enough for BTC price to defend $8.4K as higher supply pressure would have otherwise left it exposed.
- While loss supply was on the rise and, in doing so, BTC loss supply also increased, this might suggest either accumulation or a near-term market bottom.
Short-term Bitcoin holders increasingly took control of the market as the chart showed a shift toward profit-taking. Around mid-April, the BTC price reached $83.6K, and at that point, the Short-Term Holder Profit and Loss indicator turned positive.
Bitcoin Under Pressure From Short Term Holders
This was shown by a clear green 24-hour average, which matched a rise in Bitcoin moving into exchanges. This behavior suggested that short-term holders were selling to lock in their gains, and it seemed to prevent BTC from breaking above the tight range between $83.6K and $84K. As the profit signal stayed positive, short-term selling likely continued, which put pressure on further upward movement.
Source: X
Earlier, around April 7, Bitcoin dropped close to $76K. This marked a major sell-off as short-term holders faced heavy losses, shown by the sharp rise in loss levels. After that, selling pressure eased and losses became smaller, which hinted that some investors might have started buying again.
If the price stayed in this narrow band, a breakout could have followed. If BTC moved upward, it could have been higher than $84K; if it started selling again, it could have dropped back to $78K–$80K. Overall, the signals were one of cautious optimism, watching for whether exchange inflows would keep flowing.
Bitcoin Exchange Outflows Hint at Long-Term Holding Trend
Over the past week, there was a transaction of over 15,000 BTC out of exchanges. The chart supported this with a sharp drop in exchange reserves from around 2.438 million BTC on April 13 to about 2.423 million BTC by April 18.
And perhaps this steady decline might have revealed a growing investor confidence and a generating towards a long term hold. The biggest drop happened right after April 13, when reserves fell from 2.439M to just above 2.423M by April 15 and continued falling by April 17.
During this time, the BTC price moved between $84.8K and $82.5K. Though reserves shrank, the price remained strong, near $84.8K, perhaps due to a supply that was falling on exchanges supporting price stability.
Source: X
So if that pattern had continued, Bitcoin could’ve remained above $84K. However, if exchange reserves began to rise above 2.436M BTC levels from April 10 to April 13 then this could have signaled more selling pressure and the price dipping below $82.5K. Falling exchange supply with a steady price suggested that short-term holders were in the driver’s seat and long-term holders had been working hard to stay profitable at such high prices
Bitcoin Holders Face Growing Unrealized Losses
Based on the latest data, supply in profit decreased while supply in loss increased. In the past this has often been a trend that was pointing to potential buying opportunities because it was market pullbacks. When BTC traded above $100K in early 2025, most of the supply was in profit, which showed an overheated market. After that, the price dropped below $90K and hovered around $84K. As a result, the number of profitable coins fell sharply, and more holders found themselves in loss.
Source: X
This change might have shown weakening confidence among long-term investors, while short-term traders took the lead. If supply in loss continued rising to levels seen in mid-2023, the market could have been heading toward another major sell-off, possibly marking a bottom. But if BTC rebounded back above $90K, and more coins sailed into profit, then hopefully investor sentiment went back to bullish, and the rally to $100K could have restarted.
