- Bitcoin holds near $85K as analysts warn of volatility from on-chain shifts and short-term losses.
- Key holder activity and declining exchange reserves signal price swings and long-term bullishness.
- Technical indicators show strong buy signals, backing continued upward momentum.
Bitcoin (BTC) is relatively seeing stable prices at around the $86,000 mark, yet market analysts even caution, that the cryptocurrency may soon witness heightened volatility. No matter the possibilities of turbulence, experts’ general attitude is that Bitcoin’s top digital asset will soon rally in price.
Analysts Signal Potential Volatility Surge in Bitcoin
In the case of the 3–6 month holding cohort, around 170,000 BTC has been moved according to Mignolet’s recent CryptoQuant post. In history, such large transfers from this particular group have often coincided with a major change in Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
The analysis was supported by Mignolet by a chart showing that previously, there were cases of major BTC movement by the 3–6 month holders which coincided with increased market volatility. The green boxes in the chart denote periods of upward price momentum and red boxes denote phases of price decline.
Many crypto analysts have been analyzing Bitcoin’s latest price action from on chain data and technical chart indicators. Key on it was well-known analyst Master of Crypto that showed how produced values of period people (not 1, not 2, not 3 everyday, however — just 1) contrasted to long-term owners (LTH).
Master of Crypto says shortterm holders are experiencing losses right now with a realized price of $92,700 which is much higher than the current market value. However, long term holder’s gains are astronomical, being valued at roughly $26,500 for realized price. This is to say that the LTH cohort is in profit by over 200% and shows how the Bitcoin market can effect long term convictions.
Analysts Warn of Impending Bitcoin Volatility Amid Bullish On-Chain Signals
Master of Crypto also noted that disparity between the prices for short term holders (STH) and long term holders (LTH) could presage turbulent times on the market. In the past, such gaps resulted in significant price volatility. As for the tear higher, the weak hands have to fold either way, the analyst concluded, with a pointed remark.
While other crypto analyst Ali Martinez predicted bullish momentum for Bitcoin as the on-chain data showed. ‘The value also lies in the fact that over the past week alone, close to 15,000 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges,’ Martinez stated.
Declining exchange reserves is often interpreted as a bullish trend for Bitcoin since it usually means that investors have left their assets to take profits rather than sell now, at current price point. Furthermore, the dwindling quantity of available exchange balances conforms to a supply scarcity narrative as a determining factor for helping buoy price momentum higher over time.
Ali Martinez on Glassnode’s charts track Bitcoin exchange inflow volume momentum, a measure, which shows the rate of Bitcoin going into exchanges; a low momentum, claims Ali, predicts caution for buying and suggests to wait for a better entry point.
According to Glassnode’s Q4 2024 report, exchange inflow volume momentum can anticipate price movements: high inflows are generally followed by price drops which can be attributed to sell-offs as Ali envisions in a market where Bitcoin is set to move closer to $90K in April 2025.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
On Apr 19, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $85,377, which has seen its day’s range between $84,366 and $85,434 for a strong bullish trend. Since 2020, BTC has ranged between $62,084 to $100,000. The overall signal shows a ‘Strong Buy’. Bitcoin experience 1.01% increase with a major decline of 32.94% in 24-hour trading volume of $12.84 billion. Despite this, Bitcoin market capitalization stands at $1.69 trillion showing a 1.09% increase.
This bullish momentum is being mostly supported by technical indicators. Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) is 61.27 buying, Stochastic Oscillator (9,6) is at 99.76 overbought. At the Stochastic RSI (14) which sits at 71.61, it is located in bullish territory, and the MACD (12, 26) does point out a buying signal due to its value of 154.5.
Bullish tends to be further reinforced by the moving averages, which are simple and exponential MAs from 5 – 200 periods, indicating a strong upwards movement. 12 of all moving average signals represent a buy and none depict a sell signal.
